2008 Electoral College Prediction 10 Day Avg

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Comparison done in response to a discussion thread on the Straight Dope Message Boards.

As of 18 Oct 2008 update on 2008 Electoral College Prediction page.

5 Poll includes last polls up to five polls regardless of end dates.

10 Day includes polls whose end dates were 8 Oct 2008 to 17 Oct 2008.

State N 5 Poll McCain 5 Poll Obama 5 Poll O-M 5 Poll Cat 5 Poll N 10 Day McCain 10 Day Obama 10 Day O-M 10 Day Cat 10 Day Different?
Alabama 5 58.6 33.6 -25.0 Strong McCain 1 62.0 35.0 -27.0 Strong McCain No
Alaska 5 55.4 38.2 -17.2 Strong McCain 1 57.0 38.0 -19.0 Strong McCain No
Arizona 5 49.4 37.2 -12.2 Strong McCain 0
Arkansas 5 47.6 40.0 -7.6 Weak McCain 0
California 5 39.2 55.8 16.6 Strong Obama 2 37.5 57.5 20.0 Strong Obama No
Colorado 5 44.9 49.9 5.0 Weak Obama 6 44.4 50.3 5.8 Weak Obama No
Connecticut 5 38.4 53.2 14.8 Strong Obama 1 39.0 56.0 17.0 Strong Obama No
Delaware 5 38.4 55.2 16.8 Strong Obama 2 39.5 56.0 16.5 Strong Obama No
DC 1 13.0 82.0 69.0 Strong Obama 0
Florida 5 46.0 48.4 2.4 Lean Obama 11 45.2 49.0 3.8 Lean Obama No
Georgia 5 50.4 44.0 -6.4 Weak McCain 4 50.5 44.3 -6.3 Weak McCain No
Hawaii 3 30.0 64.0 34.0 Strong Obama 0
Idaho 5 60.6 30.6 -30.0 Strong McCain 0
Illinois 5 39.4 54.5 15.0 Strong Obama 1 39.0 56.0 17.0 Strong Obama No
Indiana 5 47.7 44.9 -2.8 Lean McCain 2 49.3 43.7 -5.6 Weak McCain Yes
Iowa 5 41.6 52.4 10.8 Strong Obama 1 41.0 54.0 13.0 Strong Obama No
Kansas 5 55.8 37.8 -18.0 Strong McCain 1 54.0 41.0 -13.0 Strong McCain No
Kentucky 5 54.8 39.0 -15.8 Strong McCain 0
Louisiana 5 52.6 39.2 -13.4 Strong McCain 0
Maine 5 42.4 50.6 8.2 Weak Obama 0
Maryland 5 37.4 54.6 17.2 Strong Obama 0
Massachussetts 5 37.0 57.8 20.8 Strong Obama 2 34.5 60.5 26.0 Strong Obama No
Michigan 5 39.0 52.0 13.0 Strong Obama 2 39.0 55.0 16.0 Strong Obama No
Minnesota 5 42.8 51.0 8.2 Weak Obama 1 40.0 51.0 11.0 Strong Obama Yes
Mississippi 5 53.0 40.0 -13.0 Strong McCain 1 50.0 40.0 -10.0 Strong McCain No
Missouri 5 46.5 49.6 3.1 Lean Obama 6 45.9 49.9 4.0 Lean Obama No
Montana 5 50.4 43.0 -7.4 Weak McCain 1 50.0 45.0 -5.0 Weak McCain No
Nebraska 5 56.0 34.4 -21.6 Strong McCain 0
Nevada 5 45.4 48.1 2.7 Lean Obama 5 45.4 48.1 2.7 Lean Obama No
New Hampshire 5 42.3 51.3 9.0 Weak Obama 2 42.8 49.9 7.1 Weak Obama No
New Jersey 5 40.0 51.0 11.0 Strong Obama 2 41.0 52.5 11.5 Strong Obama No
New Mexico 5 42.9 50.4 7.5 Weak Obama 3 43.5 52.7 9.2 Weak Obama No
New York 5 36.0 58.2 22.2 Strong Obama 2 34.0 60.5 26.5 Strong Obama No
North Carolina 5 46.0 48.1 2.1 Lean Obama 7 45.9 48.2 2.3 Lean Obama No
North Dakota 5 46.8 43.4 -3.4 Lean McCain 3 43.0 44.7 1.7 Lean Obama Yes
Ohio 5 46.9 48.4 1.5 Lean Obama 8 46.7 48.1 1.4 Lean Obama No
Oklahoma 5 65.4 29.6 -35.8 Strong McCain 1 63.0 32.0 -31.0 Strong McCain No
Oregon 5 40.2 54.2 14.0 Strong Obama 4 40.5 54.5 14.0 Strong Obama No
Pennsylvania 5 39.0 52.9 13.9 Strong Obama 10 39.1 52.3 13.1 Strong Obama No
Rhode Island 5 32.6 51.4 18.8 Strong Obama 0
South Carolina 5 54.2 40.8 -13.4 Strong McCain 1 55.0 41.0 -14.0 Strong McCain No
South Dakota 5 50.4 37.6 -12.8 Strong McCain 0
Tennessee 5 55.0 37.6 -17.4 Strong McCain 1 54.0 39.0 -15.0 Strong McCain No
Texas 5 54.4 40.2 -14.2 Strong McCain 2 54.4 39.0 -15.5 Strong McCain No
Utah 5 61.0 28.2 -32.8 Strong McCain 0
Vermont 5 34.3 59.8 25.6 Strong Obama 0
Virginia 5 44.0 51.0 7.0 Weak Obama 4 44.3 51.0 6.7 Weak Obama No
Washington 5 42.4 52.0 9.6 Weak Obama 1 40.0 56.0 16.0 Strong Obama Yes
West Virginia 5 47.8 45.6 -2.2 Lean McCain 2 45.5 48.5 3.0 Lean Obama Yes
Wisconsin 5 41.4 52.4 11.0 Strong Obama 1 37.0 54.0 17.0 Strong Obama No
Wyoming 5 60.2 32.6 -27.6 Strong McCain 1 58.0 35.0 -23.0 Strong McCain No