2008 Electoral College Prediction 10 Day Avg
From AbulWiki
Comparison done in response to a discussion thread on the Straight Dope Message Boards.
As of 18 Oct 2008 update on 2008 Electoral College Prediction page.
5 Poll includes last polls up to five polls regardless of end dates.
10 Day includes polls whose end dates were 8 Oct 2008 to 17 Oct 2008.
| State | N 5 Poll | McCain 5 Poll | Obama 5 Poll | O-M 5 Poll | Cat 5 Poll | N 10 Day | McCain 10 Day | Obama 10 Day | O-M 10 Day | Cat 10 Day | Different? |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alabama | 5 | 58.6 | 33.6 | -25.0 | Strong McCain | 1 | 62.0 | 35.0 | -27.0 | Strong McCain | No |
| Alaska | 5 | 55.4 | 38.2 | -17.2 | Strong McCain | 1 | 57.0 | 38.0 | -19.0 | Strong McCain | No |
| Arizona | 5 | 49.4 | 37.2 | -12.2 | Strong McCain | 0 | |||||
| Arkansas | 5 | 47.6 | 40.0 | -7.6 | Weak McCain | 0 | |||||
| California | 5 | 39.2 | 55.8 | 16.6 | Strong Obama | 2 | 37.5 | 57.5 | 20.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Colorado | 5 | 44.9 | 49.9 | 5.0 | Weak Obama | 6 | 44.4 | 50.3 | 5.8 | Weak Obama | No |
| Connecticut | 5 | 38.4 | 53.2 | 14.8 | Strong Obama | 1 | 39.0 | 56.0 | 17.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Delaware | 5 | 38.4 | 55.2 | 16.8 | Strong Obama | 2 | 39.5 | 56.0 | 16.5 | Strong Obama | No |
| DC | 1 | 13.0 | 82.0 | 69.0 | Strong Obama | 0 | |||||
| Florida | 5 | 46.0 | 48.4 | 2.4 | Lean Obama | 11 | 45.2 | 49.0 | 3.8 | Lean Obama | No |
| Georgia | 5 | 50.4 | 44.0 | -6.4 | Weak McCain | 4 | 50.5 | 44.3 | -6.3 | Weak McCain | No |
| Hawaii | 3 | 30.0 | 64.0 | 34.0 | Strong Obama | 0 | |||||
| Idaho | 5 | 60.6 | 30.6 | -30.0 | Strong McCain | 0 | |||||
| Illinois | 5 | 39.4 | 54.5 | 15.0 | Strong Obama | 1 | 39.0 | 56.0 | 17.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Indiana | 5 | 47.7 | 44.9 | -2.8 | Lean McCain | 2 | 49.3 | 43.7 | -5.6 | Weak McCain | Yes |
| Iowa | 5 | 41.6 | 52.4 | 10.8 | Strong Obama | 1 | 41.0 | 54.0 | 13.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Kansas | 5 | 55.8 | 37.8 | -18.0 | Strong McCain | 1 | 54.0 | 41.0 | -13.0 | Strong McCain | No |
| Kentucky | 5 | 54.8 | 39.0 | -15.8 | Strong McCain | 0 | |||||
| Louisiana | 5 | 52.6 | 39.2 | -13.4 | Strong McCain | 0 | |||||
| Maine | 5 | 42.4 | 50.6 | 8.2 | Weak Obama | 0 | |||||
| Maryland | 5 | 37.4 | 54.6 | 17.2 | Strong Obama | 0 | |||||
| Massachussetts | 5 | 37.0 | 57.8 | 20.8 | Strong Obama | 2 | 34.5 | 60.5 | 26.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Michigan | 5 | 39.0 | 52.0 | 13.0 | Strong Obama | 2 | 39.0 | 55.0 | 16.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Minnesota | 5 | 42.8 | 51.0 | 8.2 | Weak Obama | 1 | 40.0 | 51.0 | 11.0 | Strong Obama | Yes |
| Mississippi | 5 | 53.0 | 40.0 | -13.0 | Strong McCain | 1 | 50.0 | 40.0 | -10.0 | Strong McCain | No |
| Missouri | 5 | 46.5 | 49.6 | 3.1 | Lean Obama | 6 | 45.9 | 49.9 | 4.0 | Lean Obama | No |
| Montana | 5 | 50.4 | 43.0 | -7.4 | Weak McCain | 1 | 50.0 | 45.0 | -5.0 | Weak McCain | No |
| Nebraska | 5 | 56.0 | 34.4 | -21.6 | Strong McCain | 0 | |||||
| Nevada | 5 | 45.4 | 48.1 | 2.7 | Lean Obama | 5 | 45.4 | 48.1 | 2.7 | Lean Obama | No |
| New Hampshire | 5 | 42.3 | 51.3 | 9.0 | Weak Obama | 2 | 42.8 | 49.9 | 7.1 | Weak Obama | No |
| New Jersey | 5 | 40.0 | 51.0 | 11.0 | Strong Obama | 2 | 41.0 | 52.5 | 11.5 | Strong Obama | No |
| New Mexico | 5 | 42.9 | 50.4 | 7.5 | Weak Obama | 3 | 43.5 | 52.7 | 9.2 | Weak Obama | No |
| New York | 5 | 36.0 | 58.2 | 22.2 | Strong Obama | 2 | 34.0 | 60.5 | 26.5 | Strong Obama | No |
| North Carolina | 5 | 46.0 | 48.1 | 2.1 | Lean Obama | 7 | 45.9 | 48.2 | 2.3 | Lean Obama | No |
| North Dakota | 5 | 46.8 | 43.4 | -3.4 | Lean McCain | 3 | 43.0 | 44.7 | 1.7 | Lean Obama | Yes |
| Ohio | 5 | 46.9 | 48.4 | 1.5 | Lean Obama | 8 | 46.7 | 48.1 | 1.4 | Lean Obama | No |
| Oklahoma | 5 | 65.4 | 29.6 | -35.8 | Strong McCain | 1 | 63.0 | 32.0 | -31.0 | Strong McCain | No |
| Oregon | 5 | 40.2 | 54.2 | 14.0 | Strong Obama | 4 | 40.5 | 54.5 | 14.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Pennsylvania | 5 | 39.0 | 52.9 | 13.9 | Strong Obama | 10 | 39.1 | 52.3 | 13.1 | Strong Obama | No |
| Rhode Island | 5 | 32.6 | 51.4 | 18.8 | Strong Obama | 0 | |||||
| South Carolina | 5 | 54.2 | 40.8 | -13.4 | Strong McCain | 1 | 55.0 | 41.0 | -14.0 | Strong McCain | No |
| South Dakota | 5 | 50.4 | 37.6 | -12.8 | Strong McCain | 0 | |||||
| Tennessee | 5 | 55.0 | 37.6 | -17.4 | Strong McCain | 1 | 54.0 | 39.0 | -15.0 | Strong McCain | No |
| Texas | 5 | 54.4 | 40.2 | -14.2 | Strong McCain | 2 | 54.4 | 39.0 | -15.5 | Strong McCain | No |
| Utah | 5 | 61.0 | 28.2 | -32.8 | Strong McCain | 0 | |||||
| Vermont | 5 | 34.3 | 59.8 | 25.6 | Strong Obama | 0 | |||||
| Virginia | 5 | 44.0 | 51.0 | 7.0 | Weak Obama | 4 | 44.3 | 51.0 | 6.7 | Weak Obama | No |
| Washington | 5 | 42.4 | 52.0 | 9.6 | Weak Obama | 1 | 40.0 | 56.0 | 16.0 | Strong Obama | Yes |
| West Virginia | 5 | 47.8 | 45.6 | -2.2 | Lean McCain | 2 | 45.5 | 48.5 | 3.0 | Lean Obama | Yes |
| Wisconsin | 5 | 41.4 | 52.4 | 11.0 | Strong Obama | 1 | 37.0 | 54.0 | 17.0 | Strong Obama | No |
| Wyoming | 5 | 60.2 | 32.6 | -27.6 | Strong McCain | 1 | 58.0 | 35.0 | -23.0 | Strong McCain | No |
